Diagnosis and Outlook
In a year marked by major strides in the clean energy transition, global renewable energy capacity grew by a record 582 gigawatts (GW) in 2024, led by accelerated wind, solar, and hydroelectric projects.
Experts say this milestone strengthens clean energy generation, job creation, and energy security in multiple regions while marking an important step forward in the fight against climate change.
Still, the report “Delivering on the UAE Consensus: Tracking progress toward tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030,” published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the Brazilian presidency of COP30, and the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA), warns this progress is insufficient to align the world with the commitments made at COP28.
Infrastructure Demands
To triple renewable capacity to 11 terawatts (TW) by 2030, the report estimates that at least 1,122 GW must be installed each year starting in 2025, requiring an annual growth rate of 16.6% throughout the decade. Global energy efficiency improved by only 1% in 2024, far below the 4% annual increase needed to meet the UAE Consensus target and limit warming to 1.5°C.
The report stresses the urgency of integrating these objectives into the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0) before COP30 in Belém, doubling collective ambition to align with the Paris Agreement goals. Within this context, renewable energy investment rose 7% in 2024, reaching $624 billion, but the report projects that annual investment must rise to $1.4 trillion between 2025 and 2030 — more than double — to build a robust, scalable project pipeline.
New Power Grids
Among the key priorities is modernizing power grids, which will require an estimated $670 billion per year through 2030, along with strengthening supply chains and manufacturing for clean technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and green hydrogen.
The report calls for fair and transparent trade practices for critical materials and greater international cooperation to safeguard essential logistics corridors. G20 economies, expected to account for more than 80% of global renewable capacity by 2030, must take the lead, while the G7 is urged to raise its contribution to 20%. Climate finance, the report says, must amount to at least $300 billion annually, aiming to reach the $1.3 trillion pledged at COP29 in Azerbaijan.
Despite current progress, the report says the goals of the UAE Consensus and the 1.5°C threshold are still within reach provided strong regulatory frameworks, supportive markets, and resilient supply chains are implemented. Developing human capital is also key to ensuring a just transition and equitable distribution of benefits across emerging and developing economies.
In Latin America progress lags despite strong solar and wind potential, underscoring the need for targeted policies to close gaps and attract green investment the report sustains.
Warnings and Management
From an economic standpoint, every dollar invested in renewables generates multiple returns in growth, employment, and energy affordability, far outperforming fossil fuels in cost and implementation speed.
António Guterres, U.N. secretary-general, has warned that “the window to keep the 1.5°C limit alive is closing fast,” urging an inclusive acceleration of the transition. Francesco La Camera, IRENA director-general, echoed the same view, calling renewables “the greatest economic opportunity of our time” and stressing the need for modernized infrastructure and scaled-up clean technologies.
Ben Backwell, president of the GRA, advocates for long-term government plans that facilitate grid development and storage, maximizing the benefits of the transition. Presented at a high-level event ahead of COP30 in Brasília, the report shows that renewable abundance is underway, but immediate project execution is essential to realize its potential. Amid growing climate pressures, this roadmap not only mitigates environmental risks but also reshapes global energy geopolitics toward sustainable, equitable models.
Looking ahead, success will depend on aligning national ambitions with collective action, with COP30 as a catalyst for binding commitments. If investment doubles and infrastructure bottlenecks are resolved, the world could move toward an era of abundant, clean energy — aligning economic development with planetary preservation. Otherwise, today’s lag could jeopardize irreversible progress in curbing global warming, serving as a reminder that the time to act is now.