In a world where the competition for critical minerals is defining the future of clean energy and national security, the United States has deployed a financial arsenal worth $100 billion. The Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM Bank) this week announced a sweeping plan to secure supply chains for essential minerals, nuclear energy and liquefied natural gas (LNG), not only to strengthen the U.S. economy but also to support its strategic allies. It is a major move in the Trump 2.0 era, designed to counter dependence on China and Russia in these vital sectors.
Argentina holds massive lithium reserves, the “white gold” used in electric vehicle batteries, and has emerging potential in LNG and nuclear power. Yet the announcement comes with a major caveat. The country is currently excluded from receiving investments financed through EXIM. U.S. companies that obtain loans or guarantees from the bank are prohibited from using them for projects in Argentina, which the U.S. classifies as a “high-risk” jurisdiction. The surprise hits hard: despite the “special relationship” with Washington, a technical detail — the Country Limitation Schedule (CLS) — shuts the door abruptly.
EXIM’s flagship plan: $100 billion to bolster U.S. energy leadership
The announcement, first reported by the Financial Times and confirmed by Reuters, marks a sharp turn in U.S. energy diplomacy. Under EXIM president John Jovanovic, the bank plans to deploy the remaining $100 billion of its congressional mandate of $135 billion to projects that bolster U.S. energy dominance.
The focus is on critical minerals — lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earths — essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines and chips; nuclear energy for small modular reactors (SMRs); and LNG exports to secure markets for U.S. allies.
The first investments are already moving ahead. EXIM approved $4 billion in guarantees for a gas project in Egypt, with more support planned for Pakistan and Eastern Europe. This is part of the Trump administration's plan for global energy dominance, said EXIM. Jovanovic said the goal is to decouple strategic supply chains from geopolitical competitors. EXIM expects to leverage up to $500 billion in private investment, involving companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron and Westinghouse.
The context is fierce: China controls 80% of global lithium processing and 60% of cobalt, while Russia and Venezuela dominate nickel and palladium. The United States, which imports 100% of its rare earth elements, sees this fund as a lever to redraw the map.
Argentina, in theory, checks all the boxes
With an estimated 20 million tonnes of lithium reserves, the second-largest in the world, Argentina is a natural contender in this geopolitical contest. The Lithium Triangle of Salta, Jujuy and Catamarca has attracted large investments from companies including Livent (part of Allkem–Lithium Americas) and Posco. According to the Economy Ministry, Argentine lithium could generate $100 billion in exports by 2030.
Argentina’s LNG prospects also draw attention. Vaca Muerta, the world’s second-largest shale gas reserve, could export 20 million tonnes a year through planned facilities in Bahía Blanca. This output would compete directly with top global suppliers like the U.S. and Qatar.
In nuclear energy, the bilateral Memorandum of Understanding signed with Washington in August 2024 opens the door for SMR deployment at Atucha or CAREM, modernizing Argentina’s 1,800-MW reactor fleet. And let's not forget, there’s also hard-rock lithium in the Andes, and copper in San Juan — both crucial for transmission cables.
“Given Trump’s close relationship with Milei, the announcement of a Commercial Framework, and that MoU on critical minerals, Argentina should be an ideal candidate for U.S. firms to obtain EXIM financing,” says Esteban Actis, a Ph.D. in International Relations and coauthor of La Disputa por el poder global. But here’s the plot twist: it isn’t.
The bureaucratic brake: CLS keeps Argentina “off cover”
The EXIM operates under a strict Country Limitation Schedule (CLS), a semiannual list that rates countries by political and economic risk for export transactions. Updated in July 2025, Argentina appears marked as “off-cover” in every category: for public or private companies, short or long terms. This means no U.S. company can use EXIM loans, guarantees or insurance to invest in or export to Argentina.
“EXIM Bank believes the combined level of political and/or economic risk in Argentina is still too high to offer its standard support, guarantees, insurance or direct financing,” explains Actis in a viral thread on X, where he details how this technicality overshadows good bilateral intentions.
The CLS is not arbitrary. It protects exporters and importers from sovereign defaults or instability. Argentina shares its pariah status with Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, Haiti and Nicaragua in Latin America — an uncomfortable club that mixes regional “axis of evil” members with fragile economies. For the United States, it is a bureaucratic safeguard: the bank doesn’t want a repeat of loans to Venezuela in the 2000s that ended in massive write-offs.
There is an exception — “Note 13” of the CLS allows special cases if risks are “externalized,” such as through private guarantees or rapid-exit clauses. But it requires case-by-case approval and tough conditions. No Argentine project has qualified through this channel since 2024.
The result: companies like Tesla or General Electric, eager for Argentine lithium, must finance themselves or go through private banks, paying interest rates 2 to 3 percentage points higher because of the country-risk premium (currently 1,200 basis points, even after recent declines).
Optimism fades in Buenos Aires
Inside the Milei administration, early reports of the program sparked hopeful reactions. “This validates our strategy of global integration,” Foreign Minister Diana Mondino wrote on social media, referencing U.S.-Argentina cooperation on nuclear and energy minerals.
But experts like Actis warn: “Foreign policy needs to focus on these small details: being proactive, not reactive. The U.S. bureaucracy is enormous and cumbersome. Those ‘X’ marks are not only an economic problem, but a reputational one as well.”
For Argentina, the path out of off-cover status depends on stabilizing the country-risk premium below 800 basis points (projected for 2026 with a fiscal surplus), peaceful elections and progress with the IMF. “With the Milei-Trump alignment, we could see a favorable review in January,” Actis speculates, but he adds: “Economic diplomacy is not just selfies at Mar-a-Lago; it’s lobbying in Congress and at EXIM.”
Companies such as YPF and Lithium Americas are already feeling the effects. Without EXIM guarantees, attracting U.S. partners for LNG and lithium projects requires significantly more capital. “We have the resource but not the stamp of approval,” a lithium industry executive said on background.
Looking to 2026: will the door open?
EXIM’s $100 billion initiative is transforming selected countries into new energy hubs. Egypt stands to serve Europe and the Mediterranean in LNG, while Pakistan expands its nuclear capabilities. Europe is strengthening its own mineral supply and processing networks. Argentina hopes to follow Chile, which is negotiating EXIM participation despite political disputes. But until the CLS is revised, Argentina remains on the sidelines.
The lesson is clear: in the geopolitics of energy, resources may be abundant, but financing flows only toward “low-risk” destinations. For Milei, who has bet on his alignment with Trump, this veto serves as a reminder: bilateral friendship is valuable, but business demands institutional credibility.
Will Argentina leave the off-cover club in the next review? Country risk is falling, reserves are rising and the nuclear MoU is advancing. But until then, EXIM’s $100 billion will remain a mirage for the Global South.