The 14-day ceasefire between Iran and the United States and Israel has given global energy markets a tentative recovery timeline: most of the 11 million barrels per day in curtailed Gulf oil production could resume within two weeks, but the last barrels will take months and Qatar's full liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity will not be restored for years, according to Wood Mackenzie, the energy research and consultancy firm.
The assessment, published on April 9, maps the sequence of supply restoration across crude, refining and LNG under what the firm describes as a potential best-case scenario. Wood Mackenzie's base case, first published on March 2, anticipated a short conflict ending by mid-April with supply returning to pre-war levels by July. Direct talks between Iran and the United States are due to begin this weekend in Pakistan.
The stakes extend well beyond the Persian Gulf. The conflict has reshaped trade flows and price expectations for producers with access to Atlantic export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, notably Argentina's Vaca Muerta formation, one of the world's largest shale plays, where the surge in Brent has strengthened the investment case for LNG and crude export infrastructure under development.
Oil Supply Could Return Faster Than LNG
Around half of the shut-in upstream production could restart within days if the Strait of Hormuz is confirmed transitable, Wood Mackenzie estimates. Up to three quarters could be back online within two weeks. More than 120 million barrels of crude currently stored on vessels could reach Europe within two to three weeks and North Asia within four weeks.
The final tranche of production will require well interventions and optimization of facilities from wellhead through gas plants, water systems and export logistics, a process the firm expects to stretch over months.
Gulf refineries are better positioned. Facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran have continued operating through the conflict to meet local demand of approximately 7 million b/d. Infrastructure damage across the refining complex has been limited, and utilization rates could ramp back up within weeks.
Qatar LNG Recovery Measured in Years, Not Months
The conflict took 77 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG capacity offline, equivalent to 20% of global supply. Wood Mackenzie assumes up to three days to bring wells back onstream and a seven-day ramp-up per train. If production begins restarting in early May, the 41-MTPA North site at Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar's main LNG and petrochemical export hub, could reach full service by July.
The South site presents a longer timeline. Damage to two trains with a combined capacity of 12.8 MTPA will require repairs that prevent Qatar from returning to full pre-war LNG output for several years. Wood Mackenzie has also pushed back the expected first cargo from Qatar's North Field East expansion from November 2026 to August 2027, extending market tightness through next year. The consultancy does not expect global capacity additions to deliver substantially lower LNG prices until 2028, when the long-anticipated shift to oversupply may finally materialize.
The delayed Qatari ramp-up has implications for emerging LNG exporters. Argentina's phased LNG export initiative, the Argentina LNG project led by YPF, Argentina's state-controlled oil and gas company, in partnership with ENI, the Italian energy company, and XRG, ADNOC's international investment arm, stands to benefit from a tighter-than-expected market window through 2027 should final investment decision (FID) timelines hold.
Asian LNG imports fell 5% year-on-year in March as demand destruction among price-sensitive buyers took hold, even before the full effect of lost Qatari supply was felt. Wood Mackenzie projects the war's impact will reduce Asian LNG demand by 10 MTPA in 2026 compared with 2025.
Price Outlook Hinges on Ceasefire Durability
Wood Mackenzie's latest forecast sees Brent crude averaging $89 per barrel in the second quarter before slipping below $75 in the third quarter and under $70 into the first quarter of 2027. The firm projects Brent stabilizing at an average of $65 per barrel for full-year 2027, with ample supply in the market. That new equilibrium sits $4 to $5 per barrel above the pre-war forecast, reflecting a higher risk premium and the need to refill depleted inventories.
Even the base-case recovery leaves Brent well above the $36 to $45 per barrel breakeven range that most Vaca Muerta producers have reported, sustaining the margin cushion that has underpinned the current investment cycle under Argentina's Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI).
The downside scenario is severe. If the ceasefire collapses, Wood Mackenzie expects Brent to resume its climb. Sustained prices above $90 per barrel through 2026 would cut global GDP growth from the pre-war forecast of 2.5% to below 2%, pushing the United States and the EU toward recession. At $100, growth could slow to 1.7%. At $200, the global economy could contract by 0.5%.
The ceasefire agreement has already been tested within its first 24 hours, tempering initial optimism.