Oil price
In a scenario that redefines the dynamics of the global energy market, the International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a crude oil supply surplus of close to four million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, driven by a robust increase in production outside the OPEC+ cartel.
This forecast, detailed in the IEA's October monthly report, reflects supply growth that far exceeds projected demand, in a context of volatile Brent prices, which were trading around $65 a barrel at the end of last week.
The trend, already evident with an average oversupply of 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first nine months of 2025 , underscores the pressure on producers to adjust their strategies in an environment of imminent saturation. The IEA report raises its estimate for global supply growth to 3 million bpd by 2025, reaching a total of 106.1 million bpd, and projects an additional 2.4 million bpd in 2026.
The report states that this expansion originates primarily in non-OPEC+ regions , where production has increased by 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and is expected to add another 1.2 million bpd next year. Factors such as technological efficiency in drilling and the opening of new fields contribute to this acceleration, although the agency warns that the "sudden increase" could generate an unsustainable imbalance, forcing cuts or diversification in the value chain.
According to the report, “Latin America is emerging as a key hub in this expansion narrative, with Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina leading the growth in South America.” It argues that Guyana, for example, could double its output thanks to offshore projects in partnership with ExxonMobil, while Brazil is making progress in the pre-salt fields with Petrobras at the forefront.
Vaca Muerta as the architect
According to the report, in Argentina, the development of Vaca Muerta is accelerating shale oil extraction, although it faces logistical and cost challenges that put it at a disadvantage compared to more efficient and cheaper US production.
“These regional contributions not only diversify global sources, but also intensify competition, exacerbating the projected surplus,” they said.
For its part, OPEC+ has opted for a gradual reopening of quotas, increasing production by 137,000 bpd starting in November 2025, in response to a market it perceives as balanced in the short term. However, OPEC's October report contrasts with the IEA's view, estimating a minimal deficit of just 50,000 bpd for 2026, based on demand growth of 1.4 million bpd.
This discrepancy highlights the cartel's internal tensions, where Saudi Arabia and Russia balance geopolitical pressures with market share objectives, although analysts agree that the reality of the surplus could force more drastic adjustments in the second half of next year.
Price evolution
The implications for prices are clear and challenging: the US EIA forecasts Brent crude averaging $62 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and falling to $52 in the first half of 2026, reflecting the erosion of margins for high-cost producers.
JPMorgan , for its part, anticipates a more moderate surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), but agrees with the bearish trend, citing risks of volatility due to rising inventories. In a market where the energy transition is slowing demand in developed economies, this scenario is pressuring emerging exporters to prioritize efficiency and partnerships to maintain profitability. Geopolitical factors add layers of complexity to the picture.
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and Western sanctions have tightened the supply of refined fuels, partially offsetting the crude oil glut and temporarily raising diesel and gasoline prices. However, the IEA reports 1.5 million barrels per day of "unaccounted-for oil" in August, possibly linked to opaque flows from Russia and Iran, which is creating confusion in global stock estimates.
These tensions could mitigate the short-term surplus, but they do not alter the structural trajectory toward oversupply. Looking further ahead, the consensus among experts such as Nicolás Arceo suggests that prices will not recover by 2026, prompting a reconfiguration of the sector.
For Argentina, this means redoubling efforts in Vaca Muerta to bring costs below $50 per barrel , attracting foreign investment in a risk-averse climate.
As OPEC+ assesses cuts at its December meeting, the global market is preparing for a "something has to give" moment, potentially catalyzed by the COP30 summit in 2026, where the decarbonization agenda could accelerate the obsolescence of fossil assets and redefine producers' priorities.