Good results
GeoPark, the Latin American oil producer with a strong regional footprint, is moving steadily forward with its entry into the Vaca Muerta shale formation.
After successfully integrating the Loma Jarillosa Este block, which it operates 100%, and Puesto Silva Oeste, the company is preparing an aggressive drilling program and consolidating its strategy for sustained growth. A recent announcement by JP Morgan, which raised its price target for GeoPark shares (NYSE: GPRK) to $11 from $8.50, with the stock currently trading around $8.08, reinforces market confidence in the value this shale expansion is expected to deliver over the medium and long term.
JP Morgan’s valuation upgrade comes as GeoPark surpassed 28,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day globally in the fourth quarter of 2025, with initial contributions from Vaca Muerta. In the Neuquén blocks, production reached 1,234 boepd, driven by optimizations such as the installation of artificial lift systems in three wells on Pad 1020, which generated an average 25% increase in production per well.
The short-term plan includes closing contracts for rigs and services in the first quarter of 2026, with the mobilization of a drilling rig in March to drill three stand-alone wells in the second quarter. Toward the end of 2026, GeoPark will begin factory drilling to replicate efficiencies and lower costs, in line with its 2026-2028 program, which projects global production of up to 48,000 boepd, with Vaca Muerta as a key growth engine.
On the regulatory front, the company is advancing the Environmental Impact Study for Loma Jarillosa and other permits, ensuring predictable execution. Its office in Neuquén is already staffed with nearly 90% local personnel experienced in shale operations, strengthening its commitment to community development and knowledge transfer.
Industry sources point to potential synergies with neighboring operators in logistics and services. GeoPark’s entry into Vaca Muerta, completed in September 2025, increased production fivefold compared with 2019 levels and expanded proved and probable reserves (2P) by 38% to 121 million barrels of oil equivalent, with Vaca Muerta accounting for 30% of the total. This extended the 2P reserves life index to 12.7 years and generated a reserves replacement ratio of 430%.
Analysts at S&P Global maintain a stable outlook for the company following this strategic move. JP Morgan, which reiterates its “Overweight” recommendation, sees diversification beyond Colombia as a key catalyst for unlocking value.
The new $11 price target implies significant upside from recent trading levels, roughly in the $7 to $9 range, recognizing Vaca Muerta’s potential as a core growth platform through 2028. Shale production is projected to reach an exit rate of 5,000 to 6,000 barrels per day in 2026, with larger contributions in subsequent years.
Experts agree that GeoPark is taking a gradual but disciplined approach, prioritizing operational excellence and capital control in a volatile energy market. Specialized industry publications have highlighted this “quiet bet,” which is already adding production and could help boost Vaca Muerta’s momentum as a pillar of Argentina’s energy matrix.