Israeli Defense Forces struck Iran's largest petrochemical plant this morning at Asaluyeh, taking the facility out of commission. The plant sits on Iran's Persian Gulf coast, adjacent to South Pars, the world's largest natural gas field, shared between Iran and Qatar. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the operation, saying Israel had "just carried out a powerful strike on the largest petrochemical facility in Iran, located in Asaluyeh, a central target responsible for about 50% of the country's petrochemical production." He added that the two facilities struck in combined operations "represent a severe economic blow amounting to tens of billions of dollars to the Iranian regime."
Iran acknowledged the attack through state media. The complex operator said the situation was "under control" and that technical teams were assessing the damage. No recovery timeline was provided.
IDF Claims 85% of Iran's Petrochemical Export Capacity Now Offline
Today's strike was not a standalone operation. Last week, Israeli forces struck the country's second-largest petrochemical plant, also in the South Pars area. Combined, Katz stated that "the two facilities, which together account for roughly 85 percent of Iran's petrochemical exports, have been taken out of operation and are no longer functioning."
The scope requires clarification: today's attack targeted petrochemical infrastructure at Asaluyeh, not liquefaction trains directly. The impact on LNG supply is, for now, indirect — through escalating tension, price pressure, and a signal that the entire South Pars complex is operating under sustained threat. Direct liquefaction capacity damage occurred earlier, on the Qatari side of the field: Iranian attacks on QatarEnergy's facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar's main LNG and petrochemical export hub — carried out in retaliation for Israeli strikes on South Pars, beginning March 2 and escalating on March 18 — removed approximately 19% of global LNG supply from the market and triggered force majeure declarations on long-term supply contracts with buyers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China.
Rystad Energy, the energy research firm, has estimated Gulf energy infrastructure repair and restoration costs at a minimum of $25 billion, with delays in the production of liquefaction turbines (the specialized compressors required to bring new LNG export capacity online) also affecting the timeline of the Argentina LNG project, a phased LNG export initiative led by YPF, Argentina's state-controlled oil and gas company, in partnership with ENI, the Italian energy company, and XRG, ADNOC's international investment arm. The firm estimates that recovery of regional liquefaction capacity could take three to five years.
Argentina's Winter LNG Procurement Closes Against Gulf Escalation
Energía Argentina S.A. (ENARSA), the state-owned energy company, received two technical bids today in its tender for private LNG imports for the 2026 winter season, when domestic gas demand peaks and supplementary imports are required to bridge the supply gap. The financial envelope opens on April 13: on that date, bidders will set the premium above the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe's natural gas benchmark, that they will pass through to the domestic market. Award is scheduled for April 21.
Each new strike against South Pars infrastructure narrows the spot market from which the winning bidder will need to source cargoes. That bidder will be pricing against a TTF that was already trading around €50 per MWh before today's attack — more than 40% above pre-conflict levels — and that now carries an additional geopolitical risk premium. The first cargo must arrive at the Escobar LNG terminal (Argentina's primary LNG import regasification facility, on the Paraná waterway north of Buenos Aires) in May. There is no room to wait.
Argentina's export ambitions read the same map in reverse.
The systematic destruction of industrial capacity in the Persian Gulf raises the value of every cubic meter from the Vaca Muerta formation — one of the world's largest shale plays, located in Argentina's Neuquén Basin. ADNOC, Abu Dhabi's state oil company and a partner in the Argentina LNG project, has experienced two interruptions at its Habshan gas processing complex in Abu Dhabi in fifteen days. The Gulf supplier is under compounding pressure; the South Atlantic supplier still has no export terminal. Argentina's planned LNG export infrastructure would load cargoes onto Atlantic routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, the two maritime chokepoints at the center of the current supply disruption. Every week without a final investment decision (FID) is a week of opportunity not captured.
Strait of Hormuz: No Path to Reopening
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Iran has rejected a 15-point plan put forward by the Trump administration — describing it as "extremely excessive and unusual and illogical" — while the administration has threatened to strike power plants and bridges if Tehran does not resume traffic. Ceasefire negotiations aimed at a 45-day pause were suspended following the Asaluyeh strike. Thirty-five countries are now operating under the assumption that the closure will be extended.
Brent crude is trading around $111 per barrel today.
Javier Blas, Bloomberg's energy columnist, argued at CERAWeek, the annual global energy conference organized by S&P Global, that the world does not have sufficient tools to offset the loss of roughly 10 million barrels per day over a period of months — the scale of disruption a prolonged Hormuz closure represents. Today, that warning sounds less like a forecast and more like a description.