Vaca Muerta is positioned as the main engine of hydrocarbon growth in Argentina, with projections from Rystad Energy that anticipate exceeding one million barrels of oil per day (bpd) before 2030, thanks to operational efficiency and a flow of capital that has already reached $5.7 billion in mergers and acquisitions during 2025.
In its most recent analysis, Rystad Energy highlights that crude oil production in Vaca Muerta climbed to a record high of 566,967 bpd in September 2025, an increase of 3.6% compared to August and 26.9% year-on-year, driven by the high productivity of shale wells.
"Vaca Muerta has become the main source of growth in Argentina's oil and gas production, already accounting for half of the country's crude oil production," says the consultancy's report, which highlights how unconventional developments generate approximately twice as much oil per foot drilled as conventional formations.
Natural gas, despite a slight monthly drop to 95.71 million cubic meters per day (MMm³/d) in Neuquén during September, maintains its key role in the energy mix, contributing approximately 55% of the country's total hydrocarbon production. This strength reduces dependence on imports and positions Argentina toward self-sufficiency, with Vaca Muerta catapulted into a key global LNG supplier, according to Rystad.
YPF sets the direction for the sector
According to the consulting firm, YPF's divestments mark a turning point in portfolio optimization. Under its "4x4" strategy, the state-owned company transferred approximately 90,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) from 28 mature blocks to smaller operators in 2024, freeing up capital to focus on shale and LNG.
The second round of Proyecto Andes, launched in August 2025, offers 16 assets in six clusters with approximately 60,000 boepd, attracting players such as Pecom, Crown Point Energy and Oilstone Energía , expanding the ecosystem and preserving jobs in provinces such as Mendoza and Río Negro, Rystad details.
On the LNG front, progress is accelerating the export vision. The Southern Energy LNG project , with two Golar floating storage and offloading (FSO) vessels (Hilli Episeyo and MK II) with a capacity of 6 million tons per year (Mtpa), is expected to begin production in 2027.
YPF is progressing in additional phases: ARGFLNG 2 with Shell for 6 Mtpa and ARGFLNG 3 with Eni for 12 Mtpa, adding up to a potential of up to 28 Mtpa towards the end of the decade.
"YPF is reducing its mature fields to focus on LNG ventures as part of rebalancing its portfolio," Rystad states in its latest report. The Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) pipeline , operational since 2027, will connect Neuquén to the Atlantic via Punta Colorada, unlocking logistical potential and alleviating bottlenecks.
Oldelval's expansion, beginning in April 2025, also mitigates previous evacuation restrictions, reinforcing Vaca Muerta's long-term viability as a global energy hub, according to analysts at the consulting firm. Mergers and acquisitions in Vaca Muerta captured 43% of the total value of upstream deals in Latin America in 2025, surpassing Brazil with $5.7 billion in transactions.
Giants like Chevron are planning for 30,000 bpd by year-end, while Equinor reconsidered its exit thanks to tax incentives and improved infrastructure. Rystad emphasizes that these flows validate the profitability of Argentine shale in a stable price market. Looking ahead, Rystad projects that Vaca Muerta will reach over one million bpd in the early 2030s with only 50% more drilling rigs, provided infrastructure challenges are resolved.
"Vaca Muerta has become the main source of growth in Argentina's oil and gas production," the report warns, emphasizing how this "engine of growth" is redefining the Argentine economy, placing it on the world map of unconventional energy with impacts on royalties and employment that exceed expectations.