Tensions in Iran
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint for oil and liquefied natural gas.
Roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and equivalents — that is, millions of barrels per day — pass through it daily, representing about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and more than 25% of seaborne oil trade, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration through June 2025.
In 2025, flows remained broadly stable around that level. A slight decline in crude shipments due to OPEC+ production cuts was offset by higher volumes of refined products. For 2026, a modest increase is expected if there are no major disruptions.
Against this backdrop (January 2026), attention is focused on massive protests in Iran, which erupted in late December 2025 over the economic crisis and have since evolved into a nationwide movement against the ruling regime.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned of strong military action if the regime continues to repress demonstrators, saying that “help is on the way” and that the United States is “locked and loaded.”
Below are answers to 10 key questions, with clear and up-to-date data.
- What is the Strait of Hormuz?
It is the maritime channel connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, and the only natural sea outlet for oil and gas exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran. It operates under international rules of innocent passage (the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea), with two 2.3-mile-wide navigation lanes separated by a safety buffer. The strait can accommodate very large crude carriers (VLCCs) of up to 350,000 deadweight tons. Iran controls the northern side, making the passage especially sensitive to decisions in Tehran during periods of internal crisis.
- Where is it located?
Between Iran’s northern coastline and Oman’s Musandam Peninsula in the Middle East (approximate coordinates 26°34’N, 56°15’E). Its total length is about 93 miles, and at its narrowest point it is 21 nautical miles wide. This constriction limits practical traffic to about 200-300 vessels per day and turns any incident or threat into an immediate risk to the flow of roughly 20 million barrels per day, with no large-scale alternatives available.
- What are its main physical characteristics?
The main shipping lanes are 160 to 330 feet deep, sufficient for drafts of 65 to 82 feet on large vessels. Tidal currents reach 1 to 2 knots, and Shamal winds can generate waves of 6 to 13 feet, affecting navigability about 10% to 15% of the year. According to AIS vessel-tracking data from Vortexa, theoretical maximum capacity is 30 to 35 million barrels per day, but in practice it stabilizes around 20 million barrels per day due to congestion and International Maritime Organization safety rules. Several vessels are currently waiting outside Iranian ports as a precaution amid uncertainty.
- Why is it so important to global energy?
It carries about 20% of the oil consumed worldwide and 22% of globally traded liquefied natural gas, mainly from Qatar. About 80% of these shipments go to Asian markets, including China, India, Japan and South Korea. A disruption lasting just 30 days could push Brent crude prices up by $20 to $50 a barrel — or even $90 to $110 in extreme scenarios, according to Goldman Sachs — triggering global inflation equivalent to 0.5% to 1.5% of GDP and severe problems for importing economies. The protests in Iran and Trump’s statements are already adding a risk premium to markets.
- How much oil passes through it each day?
An average of 20 million barrels per day in 2024 and 2025, broken down into about 15.5 million barrels per day of crude and condensates plus 4.5 million barrels per day of refined products. In the second half of 2025, crude volumes fell by a net 1.1 million barrels per day due to OPEC+ cuts, partly offset by higher refined product flows. This is equivalent to loading 14 to 15 large supertankers every day. A disruption of that scale would be tantamount to removing the combined daily consumption of the United States and Europe from the market.
- What share does it represent of global energy trade?
Roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption (with world demand estimated at 104 million barrels per day in 2025), 27% of seaborne oil trade and 22% of global LNG. In terms of primary energy, it represents about 15% to 20% of the global energy mix, or 1,000 to 1,200 exajoules per year. Qatar depends on this route for about 90% of its annual LNG exports, totaling 77 million metric tons.
- Which major exporting countries depend on this route?
Saudi Arabia (5.5 million barrels per day, about 70% of its exports), the United Arab Emirates (3 million barrels per day), Iraq (3.5 million barrels per day), Kuwait (2 million barrels per day), Qatar (1.5 million barrels per day of crude plus about 4 million metric tons of LNG per month) and Iran (about 1.7 million barrels per day of crude plus 0.8 million barrels per day of products, mostly to China despite sanctions). Together, they account for about 80% of OPEC exports from the Gulf. The current protests directly affect Iranian shipments and raise concerns about the stability of the entire region.
- Are there viable alternatives to bypass the strait?
Options are limited and cover only about 15% to 20% of current volumes. Saudi Arabia operates the East-West pipeline, with capacity of 5 million barrels per day to Yanbu on the Red Sea, but real spare capacity is about 2.6 million barrels per day. The UAE has the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline (1.8 million barrels per day, with some expansion underway). Iran has the Goreh-Jask pipeline (1 million barrels per day), which is little used. There are no meaningful alternatives for LNG. A closure would force longer and costlier routes, adding $2 to $5 per barrel, and require refinery adjustments.
- What would be the impact of a prolonged disruption?
A reduction of up to 20 million barrels per day in global supply — about 20% of world consumption — with an initial Brent price increase of $30 to $70 a barrel, or more in severe scenarios. This would generate global inflation of 1% to 2%, a GDP contraction of 0.5% to 1% in Asia, and the need to tap strategic reserves (50 million to 100 million barrels over 30 days). For LNG, a drop of 4 to 5 million metric tons per month would push Asian spot prices up 20% to 40%. Trump’s threats and Iran’s crackdown on protests, with thousands reported killed, are fueling fears of Iranian retaliation, although analysts see a full closure as an extreme measure that would also harm Iran itself.
- What is the current situation (January 2026)?
Flows remain stable at around 20 million barrels per day, with no physical disruptions reported, but volatility is high due to geopolitical risk. The daily value of energy passing through the strait exceeds $1 billion to $1.5 billion. In Iran, protests persist at a lower intensity amid heavy repression and an internet blackout.