The early hours of Jan. 3, 2026, marked a turning point in geopolitics: The United States launched a large-scale attack on Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, according to an announcement by President Donald Trump on Truth Social.
The operation, which included explosions in Caracas and other key areas, has injected uncertainty into global energy markets. While no direct damage to oil infrastructure has been reported, analysts at specialized firms such as Rystad Energy, Enverus and Wood Mackenzie are assessing the short- and medium-term impacts on oil production, prices and the oil and gas supply balance.
Markets closed with WTI around $57 a barrel and Brent near $61 a barrel, signaling a limited reaction so far despite heightened geopolitical risk. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but output has fallen sharply due to sanctions, underinvestment and mismanagement. Before the intervention, production was estimated at between 900,000 and 1.1 million barrels per day, largely heavy crude exported to China and India, according to Rystad Energy. Wood Mackenzie reports similar levels, around 900,000 b/d in 2025.
With Maduro’s capture, analysts see potential for higher output if a pro-U.S. government is installed. A report by Argus Media highlights growing uncertainty around Venezuelan exports, which could be temporarily disrupted but later flood the market if sanctions are lifted. An analysis by Geopolitics Unplugged suggests that a regime change could lead to oversupply, potentially pushing WTI down to $50 a barrel, similar to the post-2003 scenario in Iraq or post-2011 Libya.
In the short term, however, the blockade reduces foreign currency inflows, exacerbating inflation in Venezuela, Reuters warns. Rystad Energy cautions that a violent disruption could temporarily reduce supply, affecting heavy crude prices and benchmarks such as Dubai versus Brent, as the global market would rely more heavily on substitutes from Canada or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
Medium-term outlook for the region
Over the medium term, a regime change accompanied by sanctions relief could allow for a rapid recovery. Wood Mackenzie estimates that with improved management and modest investment, about $15 billion to $20 billion in the Orinoco Belt, production could reach 2 million b/d within one to two years.
Rystad agrees that Venezuelan volumes are marginal on a global scale, less than 1%, but notes that their heavy crude quality is distinctive, with more than 67% classified as heavy, which could trigger initial volatility in heavy crude prices. Enverus, which focuses on shale and upstream data, notes that any disruption would affect Asian and U.S. refiners reliant on grades such as Merey, although the net impact on global prices would likely be limited in a market facing potential oversupply in 2026.
Prices showed immediate volatility after the intervention, but the Jan. 2 close reflected a contained impact: WTI around $57 a barrel, with a daily range between $56.60 and $57.93, and Brent near $61. Analysts broadly agree on a modest geopolitical “risk premium,” as Venezuelan production was already constrained by existing sanctions.
Rystad Energy forecasts limited short-term impact but warns of risks if disruptions are prolonged. Wood Mackenzie emphasizes that a temporary loss would support a market with underlying demand, but a post-regime rebound could flood the market and pressure prices lower.
The OPEC+ perspective, with Venezuela as a member
OPEC+, of which Venezuela is a member though exempt from quotas due to sanctions, now faces added pressure. The core group of eight producers meets on Jan. 4 to review supply policy, with expectations of keeping first-quarter 2026 production unchanged, according to delegates cited by Argus Media.
OPEC+ is maintaining voluntary and group cuts totaling 3.24 million b/d through the end of 2026. A Venezuelan recovery, however, could add uncontrolled supply, exacerbating the oversupply projected for 2026, up to 3.8 million b/d according to the International Energy Agency. This could force extensions or adjustments to cuts to defend prices, particularly if Venezuela returns with heavy barrels competing with grades from Saudi Arabia and others. Analysts at Kpler and Rystad say the market may be underestimating geopolitical risks, but a global glut limits sustained price gains.
In contrast to Venezuelan uncertainty, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play represents stable and predictable growth. According to official data from the Energy Secretariat, national oil production hit record levels in 2025, with October at 859,500 b/d, up 15.5% year over year, and November at 857,700 b/d, up 13.6%. Shale contributed about 580,000 b/d, roughly 68% of total output. Annual average production topped 800,000 b/d, driven by infrastructure expansions such as Oldelval and the Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline project.