Global tensions rise
Missiles are not the only front in the conflict between the United States and Israel and Iran.
As Iranian attacks expanded, drone targets were more than clear: oil and gas infrastructure — and its main export route, the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts at Kpler, one of the most widely referenced commodities data firms in global energy markets, argue that high oil prices are Donald Trump’s “Achilles’ heel.”
Michelle Brouhard, an analyst at the company, said on social media that Trump built much of his electoral platform on the promise of cheap energy.
The crisis with Iran is reversing the outlook for lower fuel prices that followed the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the invasion of Venezuela in February. But with Brent crude briefly touching $82 a barrel for April deliveries, the promise of cheap gasoline is beginning to crack.
The logic behind the threat
In Brouhard’s view, Iran’s decision to threaten the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not only a military response but also a political calculation.
That calculation centers on keeping crude prices elevated for weeks, even if it carries visible costs for the U.S. government in an election year.
In late 2026, the United States will hold midterm elections. Sustained energy inflation would complicate the administration’s economic narrative in ways that would be difficult to obscure.
Brent was trading at $61 at the beginning of the year. Within weeks — even before the weekend’s attacks — it had already climbed to $72, reflecting a growing geopolitical risk premium. If the conflict drags on, the $90 threshold would cease to be a projection and instead become a floor.
Kpler tracking systems indicate that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed since Saturday’s attacks. At least 150 tankers remain anchored in open waters of the Persian Gulf. Only Iranian and Chinese vessels continue to transit.
"The strait is effectively closed,” Homayoun Falakshahi, an analyst at the firm, told the BBC.
Prices tighten
At the same time, Amena Bakr, Kpler’s head of Middle East and OPEC+ research, projected that Brent will trade between $85 and $90 in the coming days. Meanwhile, Muyu Xu, the company’s senior crude analyst, was more specific about the time frame: the current conflict could keep prices elevated for longer than the June 2025 episode, when there was no physical supply disruption.
However, the strategy carries its own tensions. Sustained oil prices above $90 would also hurt China and India, two of the main buyers of Iranian crude and strategic partners of Tehran. This underscores a paradox the market is already beginning to price in: Iran needs prices to hurt enough to pressure Washington, but not so much that it alienates its own trading partners.
Timing is central to that calculation. Falakshahi warned that if the Strait remains closed for an extended period, prices could move “much, much higher.”
In that scenario, a prolonged closure of the Strait would directly benefit Russia. With Gulf barrels inaccessible, both India and China would have immediate incentives to deepen their reliance on Russian crude — a spillover effect that complicates the landscape for Washington, which had been pressing both countries to scale back purchases from Moscow.