The Middle East war has put chokepoint geography back at the center of oil pricing, and Argentina's Atlantic export route, historically a logistical penalty, now sits outside the embedded risk premium
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum convened a 45-minute call with the CEOs of ExxonMobil, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum and Continental Resources. The U.S. rig count has fallen to 543, the Permian is holding at 242, and independent producers plan flat 2026 capital expenditure. For Argentina, the read-through runs through capital: when price-drilling elasticity breaks in the dominant basin, rotation into Vaca Muerta stops being an optional bet.
WTI's sharp intraday loss resets the oil market to $94 a barrel, but three unresolved variables — the April 10 Islamabad negotiations, Israel's Lebanon operation, and the unaccepted terms of Iran's 10-point proposal — keep both the April 21 deadline and the price in play
In an Oil Flash Note, the bank’s Global Markets Strategy team estimated that the price effect of crude on global demand would trim just 1 million barrels per day in April. But there is a second form of demand destruction that standard elasticity does not capture: the one that occurs when physical inputs simply do not arrive. JPMorgan documented it company by company in Asia and concluded it is already underway.
John Mearsheimer argues that no one can tell a credible story about how the conflict with Iran ends. For energy markets, that uncertainty is not rhetorical — it is a pricing variable. Brent crude hit $119, and analysts warn that the geopolitical risk premium is here to stay.
The analyst, Rystad Energy’s vice president for Latin America, discusses the oil and gas outlook shaking the Middle East and its repercussions for Argentina.
Analysts say Iran is using the threat to the Strait of Hormuz to pressure the United States, putting the promise of cheap energy at risk. The conflict is adding political strain just months ahead of the midterm elections.
