WTI's sharp intraday loss resets the oil market to $94 a barrel, but three unresolved variables — the April 10 Islamabad negotiations, Israel's Lebanon operation, and the unaccepted terms of Iran's 10-point proposal — keep both the April 21 deadline and the price in play
A U.S. official confirmed fresh strikes on the island Tuesday. Rystad Energy warns a direct hit on petroleum infrastructure could cut Iranian shipments by 80–90%, pushing Brent toward $135 within four months. Wood Mackenzie and Enverus flag further upside risk.
Israeli forces struck Iran's largest petrochemical plant at Asaluyeh this morning, compounding last week's attack on a second major facility in the South Pars complex. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the operation. TTF faces fresh upward pressure on the same day ENARSA received technical bids in Argentina's private winter LNG tender
The alliance on Sunday endorsed in principle the same quota increment as April, but Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq cannot execute it while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Brent touched a four-year high of $119.50 this week; JPMorgan warns prices could top $150 if the strait stays blocked through mid-May
Since the United States and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz has entered an active crisis. Brent crude has risen above $100 a barrel for the first time in four years, the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has been shaken, and fertilizer prices have already increased by as much as 35%. Argentina is playing on both sides of the field.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical maritime passage for oil and liquefied natural gas. About 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and equivalents pass through the waterway each day, representing roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and more than 25% of seaborne oil trade.
