Oil and Gas

JPMorgan issues a cautious outlook on the global economy.
War in the Middle East

Energy: JPMorgan warns demand destruction has already begun (and models aren’t measuring it properly)

In an Oil Flash Note, the bank’s Global Markets Strategy team estimated that the price effect of crude on global demand would trim just 1 million barrels per day in April. But there is a second form of demand destruction that standard elasticity does not capture: the one that occurs when physical inputs simply do not arrive. JPMorgan documented it company by company in Asia and concluded it is already underway.

Lucía Martínez

Friday’s Morning Call.
Morning Call with Julián Guarino

Market prices in three weeks of conflict, but damage in the Persian Gulf will last months

Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude at $85 for April, assuming a short disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. But even with an immediate ceasefire, the energy infrastructure hit in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will take months to recover. In Friday’s Shale24 Morning Call, the analysis identified the gap between what prices are discounting and what the actual damage implies as the central risk the market has not yet fully priced in.

“We saw a clear opportunity in a market where demand is growing and supply is almost entirely concentrated in Neuquén,” said Diego Trabucco.
Shift in plans

Nova Energy adds 24 rigs in DLS Archer deal, eyes growth strategy

The company, created by Aconcagua Energía together with Patagonian partners, is betting on the San Jorge Gulf Basin as a growth platform and is preparing to enter the unconventional segment. The strategic deal adds a significant portfolio of 24 rigs, including drilling, workover, pulling and specialized service units.

David Mottura

Strait of Hormuz, epicenter of global volatility.
LIVE: Strait of Hormuz closure

War in the Middle East: 10 questions on what’s happening to oil, LNG, gasoline and fertilizers in Argentina

Since the United States and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz has entered an active crisis. Brent crude has risen above $100 a barrel for the first time in four years, the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has been shaken, and fertilizer prices have already increased by as much as 35%. Argentina is playing on both sides of the field.

Julián Guarino

Cerro Dragón has already begun the process of becoming a new hub largely focused on shale production, something new in the basin.
The Alberta model that Torres is replicating

Is there shale in the “D-129 planet”? YPF exits conventional operations in Chubut but leaves the door open for a return

The transfer of Manantiales Behr to PECOM Servicios Energía S.A.U. has already been approved by the board and is pending before the provincial authorities. Even so, Horacio Marín announced in New York that the company is not closing the door on unconventional development in Chubut. The regulatory mechanism that would enable that already exists, and Pan American Energy activated it in Cerro Dragón.

Julián Guarino