Emerging projections
The government successfully completed the auction of the BONAR 2029N, raising $1 billion at a yield of 9.26% (YTM). It was Argentina’s first sovereign attempt to return to voluntary dollar debt markets since 2018.
The bond, which carries a semiannual coupon of 6.5% and a bullet maturity on Nov. 30, 2029, received more than $1.4 billion in bids from 2,500 investors — a 1.4x oversubscription. According to brokers in Buenos Aires’ financial district, the outcome validates the government’s refinancing strategy for January 2026, when $1.186 billion in AL29 and AL30 notes come due (part of a total of $4.2 billion), without draining net reserves at the central bank.
Technically, the 9.26% yield is 100 basis points below the sovereign curve before the auction and below the previous country-risk reading. This not only eases immediate fiscal pressures but establishes a more competitive sovereign benchmark, which could benefit the entire energy sector.
In practice, the impact on oil and gas companies is direct. With corporate yields on 2025 notes in the 8–8.75% range (a 120–180 bps spread over sovereigns), the BONAR issuance compresses spreads and could open the door, according to early reports, to new debt offerings of $6–8 billion from energy companies in 2026.
This adds momentum to Vaca Muerta, where shale oil output already accounts for 64% of national production and is generating a structural trade surplus projected at $27–30 billion annually by 2027.
Markets reacted immediately. After the auction, sovereign bonds in New York gained 0.5–0.7% (the Bonar 2029 rose 0.7%), bringing the country-risk index down to around 625–628 basis points.
For the energy sector, this dynamic lowers marginal financing costs. The historical correlation (0.92) between the EMBI+, which tracks country risk, and corporate yields implies a 40–70 bps decline in energy companies’ notes, from an average of 8.5% to about 7.8–8.1%.
Corporate debt issuance boom intensifies
Last month had already set a record: $5 billion in hard-dollar corporate notes, 90% of them from the oil and gas sector, with maturities of 8–12 years. The BONAR 2029N results accelerate that trend, as sovereign yields near 9.5% support, according to ratings consultants, relative credit opinions such as YPF’s BBB- rating.
The projections speak for themselves. Flows of this magnitude could finance roughly $10.5 billion in shale investment in 2026, prioritizing logistics assets such as Phase 2 of the Vaca Muerta Sur oil pipeline. If the government manages to bring the EMBI+ below 500 bps in 2026, Argentina could not only refinance its debt but position Vaca Muerta as a regional LNG hub, generating a sustainable $30 billion a year for the first time in decades.