Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale play expands its production
Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale play is gearing up for a blockbuster year in hydraulic fracturing activity, with projections calling for more than 28,040 frac stages in 2026—a robust 20% jump from estimated 2025 levels and a clear marker of the basin's maturing upstream ecosystem.
According to fresh analysis from Rystad Energy, the Neuquén Basin's crown jewel continues to defy regional headwinds, buoyed by a surge in rig counts and infrastructure ramps that echo the early Permian Basin playbook.
"Vaca Muerta's frac intensity is hitting stride, with operators optimizing lateral lengths and proppant loads to chase higher EURs amid favorable crude pricing," said Diego McKinley, upstream research director at Rystad.
The forecast underscores a shift from exploratory pads to full-scale development, where multi-well pads are becoming the norm to slash drilling costs and boost returns. Data from the Argentine Secretariat of Energy backs the optimism: active drilling rigs in Vaca Muerta climbed to 102 in Q3 2025, up 15% year-over-year, while monthly frac completions averaged 2,200 stages through September.
Leading operators in Vaca Muerta
This trajectory positions 2026 output at a potential 450,000 bbl/d of oil equivalent, narrowing the gap to Permian-lite status. Operators like YPF, Vista Energy and Shell are leading the charge, with YPF alone accounting for nearly 40% of planned stages via its Loma Campana and La Calera blocks.Yet, the road to hypergrowth isn't without bottlenecks. Pipeline constraints remain a thorn, though the recently commissioned Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline—now flowing at 30 MMcm/d—promises to alleviate export pressures and unlock associated gas monetization.
"We're seeing frac crews deploy zipper fracs across 10,000-foot laterals, but water management and sand logistics will be key to sustaining this pace without cost creep," noted McKinley. Echoing U.S. shale trends, Argentine firms are eyeing produced water recycling rates above 70% to mitigate freshwater demands in the arid basin.
Comparisons to North American analogs are inevitable. Vaca Muerta's projected 2026 frac cadence rivals the Eagle Ford's mid-2010s boom, when stage counts topped 25,000 annually en route to 1.5 MMbbl/d peaks. But with Argentina's fiscal incentives intact— including export parity pricing and a stable FX regime—analysts see room for even steeper ramps.
"If capex holds at $8-10 billion, we're talking Permian 2.0 potential by decade's end," McKinley added.For now, the metrics paint a picture of resilience: Decline curves flattening at 25% annually, breakevens dipping below $40/bbl WTI, and a talent pool swelling with repatriated U.S. frac engineers. As Vaca Muerta cements its role in global energy security, 2026's frac surge could well be the litmus test for Latin America's shale ambitions.