The alliance on Sunday endorsed in principle the same quota increment as April, but Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq cannot execute it while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Brent touched a four-year high of $119.50 this week; JPMorgan warns prices could top $150 if the strait stays blocked through mid-May
With partner Sultan Al Jaber joining virtually from Abu Dhabi — after Iranian strikes hit ADNOC infrastructure — the YPF CEO cast the Hormuz closure as a structural commercial advantage for Argentina's Atlantic LNG routes; FID remains on track for October 2026
ADNOC's LNG subsidiary disclosed "temporary operational adjustments" at its 6 MTPA Das Island plant after navigation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — making it the second major Gulf LNG exporter to report output cuts in three weeks, following Iranian missile strikes on QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan liquefaction infrastructure
Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude at $85 for April, assuming a short disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. But even with an immediate ceasefire, the energy infrastructure hit in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will take months to recover. In Friday’s Shale24 Morning Call, the analysis identified the gap between what prices are discounting and what the actual damage implies as the central risk the market has not yet fully priced in.
John Mearsheimer argues that no one can tell a credible story about how the conflict with Iran ends. For energy markets, that uncertainty is not rhetorical — it is a pricing variable. Brent crude hit $119, and analysts warn that the geopolitical risk premium is here to stay.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) did not need a war fleet to paralyze 20% of the global oil supply. Targeted attacks on commercial vessels — and the collapse of the maritime insurance market that followed — were enough. Now there are mines in the water that struck the cargo ship Mayuree Naree today in the Strait of Hormuz.
Kuwait declared force majeure on Saturday, Iraqi production has collapsed 70%, and Japan is considering a unilateral release of strategic reserves. Brent hit its highest level since 2022, and operators in Vaca Muerta face a week with more questions than answers.
Energy and financial market analysts have shared their perspectives on X in recent hours, highlighting not only immediate risks but also medium-term projections, including persistent inflation, a stronger U.S. dollar, and asymmetrical benefits for producers such as the United States and OPEC+ countries.
A focal point of international tensions, Iran holds the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves, estimated at about 208 billion to 209 billion barrels at the end of 2024, accounting for roughly 12% of global reserves and 24% of those in the Middle East
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical maritime passage for oil and liquefied natural gas. About 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and equivalents pass through the waterway each day, representing roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and more than 25% of seaborne oil trade.
This video shows the extraction of extra-heavy crude, characteristic of Venezuela’s Orinoco Oil Belt. After this stage, the oil is processed using inputs supplied by Iran, then transported by pipeline and ultimately exported to China.
