In the Western Hemisphere, heavy crudes represent the “dirty” and strategic side of the oil market: viscous, high in sulfur, cheap to extract but expensive to refine, and increasingly sought after by complex refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast and in Asia.
With the world in the midst of an energy transition, these crudes—such as Venezuela’s Merey 16—remain key to balancing global supply, especially in 2026, a year marked by oversupply and low prices (Brent is hovering around $59-$60 a barrel).
But a recent geopolitical shock—the capture of Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3—has put Venezuela and its Merey blend in the spotlight, with potential production impacts that could reshape the heavy-crude landscape.
Taking Merey 16 as a reference, this Venezuelan blend, born in the Orinoco Belt, is the archetype of Western Hemisphere heavy crude. With 15-16 degrees API gravity and about 2.5% sulfur, it trades at steep discounts (currently $13 to $20 below Brent). Yet its volumes—when they flow—can flood markets such as China and India.
Venezuela, which holds more than 300 billion barrels of proved reserves, the world’s largest, currently produces only about 1 million barrels per day, far from its 1990s peak of 3 million bpd. Output has been constrained by sanctions, chronic underinvestment and disorganization at state oil company PDVSA.
A comparison with the main regional competitors makes clear how demanding this market is. All are heavy, sour crudes, but differences in quality, logistics and political stability affect pricing and flows.
Comparative Table of Heavy Crudes (approximate data as of Jan. 13, 2026)
Crude Country API° / Sulfur Price (USD/bbl) / Discount Merey 16 Venezuela 15-16° / 2.5% ~44-51 / -13 to -20 WCS Canada 20-22° / 3.0-3.5% ~45-50 / -14 to -19 Maya Mexico 21-22° / 3.3% ~48-53 / -11 to -16 Cold Lake / Castilla Canada / Colombia 19-21° / 3.5-2.0% ~44-55 / -9 to -20
(Sources: Based on Platts and EIA data and market analysis; prices approximate as of Jan. 13, 2026, with Brent around $59.)
Merey stands out for its potential volumes. If reactivated, it could add an estimated 1 million to 2 million bpd within two to three years with investment from majors such as Chevron and Exxon. However, it lags Canadian grades (WCS and Cold Lake) in political stability and reliable production capacity. Canadian barrels benefit from dependable pipeline networks heavily used by the United States.
Mexico’s Maya offers consistency, but the country has prioritized domestic consumption under former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his successor. Colombia, with Castilla, is the dark horse: production is rising, but volumes are smaller.
The elephant in the room cannot be ignored. The capture of Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3, 2026, in a U.S. military operation in Caracas that extradited him to New York on charges of narco-terrorism, money laundering and trafficking, represents a fundamental shift in industry projections.
Maduro has pleaded not guilty, alleging “kidnapping,” but his fall removes a key obstacle for the sector. Analysts said exports could temporarily decline—shipments already fell in 2025 due to tanker blockades. Merey prices could rise on a geopolitical premium of $2 to $5 initially, but the shock has been short-lived. Markets see global oversupply (the International Energy Agency projects a surplus of about 4 million bpd in 2026), and oil has failed to hold gains.