Analysis
Everything has a cycle. U.S. formations such as the Permian and Eagle Ford are now in the mature phase of oil fields that once seemed inexhaustible, with decline rates that force companies to drill more wells each year just to keep production going. Meanwhile, in Argentina’s Patagonia, the exact opposite is happening: Vaca Muerta is only just getting started, and its momentum is already making both allies and competitors nervous.
It comes down to numbers and geology. In September 2025, Argentina’s shale oil production reached 550,881 barrels per day, 30% higher than a year earlier. That jump is the story. Argentine shale oil is growing at rates the United States has not seen since 2015–2016. And it’s doing so with breakeven prices that, according to leading technical estimates (McKinsey, Rystad, Enverus), range from $36 to $45 per barrel, fully competitive with the Permian’s best areas and clearly below many zones in Eagle Ford that are already past their peak.
But the real advantage is not only the breakeven price, it’s also where each resource stands in the cycle. The Permian and Eagle Ford have gone through 15 years of intensive development: the prime “sweet spots” have been drilled, the best acreage is taken, and decline curves exceed 70% in the first year in many new pads.
The Trend Taking Shape: Vaca Muerta
Vaca Muerta, by contrast, is still in the phase of defining its core areas. Every drilling campaign finds more productive windows than the last. Wells drilled in 2024–2025 show estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) figures 20%–30% higher than those from 2021–2022. EUR refers to the volume of oil that is expected to be recovered from a resource over its full productive life, including what’s already been produced. In shale, that difference is huge.
Then there’s the privileged geology. Vaca Muerta has net thicknesses that in some blocks exceed 400 meters, while the Permian’s best windows rarely surpass 150–200 meters. That means more horizontal landings per pad, more frac stages per well and, crucially, the ability to tap multiple stacked zones without moving off the same pad. In practical terms: a single pad in Argentina can produce what would take two or three pads in Texas.
And there’s a factor nobody in Houston says out loud but everyone knows: U.S. investor fatigue. Shareholders of American shale companies are demanding cash returns instead of production growth.
Major producers prefer stock buybacks over opening new development areas. ESG pressure weighs on decisions. Regulation is tightening. In Argentina, meanwhile, the Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones or Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI) offers 30 years of fiscal stability, access to foreign currency and zero tariffs on imported equipment. Translation: Chevron, Exxon, Shell, TotalEnergies, and even mid-tier players like Vista Energy and Pampa Energía, are planning to spend billions they are no longer eager to commit in Texas.
Yes, drilling in Neuquén is still 30%–40% more expensive than in Midland. But that gap is closing every month thanks to efficiency gains (the latest wells from YPF and Vista are already below 30 days from spud to first sales) and, importantly, because Vaca Muerta’s Medanito crude, a light 36–42° API oil, trades at a premium to WTI, not at a discount like much of the Permian Midland’s output.
The outcome is predictable: while the United States struggles to add 200,000–300,000 barrels per day of shale oil nationwide in a year, Argentina is now adding that same amount from Vaca Muerta alone. And the basin is still under 10% developed relative to its technical potential.
The same funds that five years ago were fighting for acreage in the Delaware or Eagle Ford now look at blocks such as Loma Campana, Bandurria Sur, La Amarga Chica and Aguada Pichana with barely concealed interest. Because they know what many Argentines still struggle to believe: The world’s next great shale play isn’t in Texas. It’s in Neuquén.