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JPMorgan issues a cautious outlook on the global economy.
War in the Middle East

Energy: JPMorgan warns demand destruction has already begun (and models aren’t measuring it properly)

In an Oil Flash Note, the bank’s Global Markets Strategy team estimated that the price effect of crude on global demand would trim just 1 million barrels per day in April. But there is a second form of demand destruction that standard elasticity does not capture: the one that occurs when physical inputs simply do not arrive. JPMorgan documented it company by company in Asia and concluded it is already underway.

Friday’s Morning Call.
Morning Call with Julián Guarino

Market prices in three weeks of conflict, but damage in the Persian Gulf will last months

Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude at $85 for April, assuming a short disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. But even with an immediate ceasefire, the energy infrastructure hit in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will take months to recover. In Friday’s Shale24 Morning Call, the analysis identified the gap between what prices are discounting and what the actual damage implies as the central risk the market has not yet fully priced in.

The agreement was signed by Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau.
Preferential trade zone proposed for critical minerals

Argentina and U.S. sign strategic critical minerals agreement

The ministerial meeting, which brought together delegations from 55 countries plus the European Union, focused on strategies to counter China’s dominance in critical minerals processing, seen as a challenge for the energy transition, the technology sector, defense, and artificial intelligence.