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The US shale industry experienced its first projected contraction since the boom
Drill, Baby, Drill

The White House Pushed the Majors to Drill. The Permian Did Not Move — U.S. Shale Has Stopped Responding to Price

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum convened a 45-minute call with the CEOs of ExxonMobil, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum and Continental Resources. The U.S. rig count has fallen to 543, the Permian is holding at 242, and independent producers plan flat 2026 capital expenditure. For Argentina, the read-through runs through capital: when price-drilling elasticity breaks in the dominant basin, rotation into Vaca Muerta stops being an optional bet.

Iran Strikes Al Jubail: IRGC Missiles and Drones Hit World's Largest Petrochemical Complex
War in the Middle East

Iran Strikes Al Jubail: IRGC Missiles and Drones Hit World's Largest Petrochemical Complex

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ballistic missiles and drones struck Al Jubail Industrial City on Monday, igniting fires at SABIC facilities as Brent crude traded near $110/barrel — up nearly 80% year-to-date. JPMorgan warns of direct fuel shortages across South and Southeast Asia. Approximately 50 Qatari LNG tankers remain idle in Asian ports.

OPEC+ Approves 206,000 bbl/d May Increase Its Gulf Members Cannot Execute
Prices reflect that scale

OPEC+ Approves 206,000 bbl/d May Increase Its Gulf Members Cannot Execute

The alliance on Sunday endorsed in principle the same quota increment as April, but Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq cannot execute it while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Brent touched a four-year high of $119.50 this week; JPMorgan warns prices could top $150 if the strait stays blocked through mid-May

JPMorgan issues a cautious outlook on the global economy.
War in the Middle East

Energy: JPMorgan warns demand destruction has already begun (and models aren’t measuring it properly)

In an Oil Flash Note, the bank’s Global Markets Strategy team estimated that the price effect of crude on global demand would trim just 1 million barrels per day in April. But there is a second form of demand destruction that standard elasticity does not capture: the one that occurs when physical inputs simply do not arrive. JPMorgan documented it company by company in Asia and concluded it is already underway.

Friday’s Morning Call.
Morning Call with Julián Guarino

Market prices in three weeks of conflict, but damage in the Persian Gulf will last months

Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude at $85 for April, assuming a short disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. But even with an immediate ceasefire, the energy infrastructure hit in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will take months to recover. In Friday’s Shale24 Morning Call, the analysis identified the gap between what prices are discounting and what the actual damage implies as the central risk the market has not yet fully priced in.

The agreement was signed by Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau.
Preferential trade zone proposed for critical minerals

Argentina and U.S. sign strategic critical minerals agreement

The ministerial meeting, which brought together delegations from 55 countries plus the European Union, focused on strategies to counter China’s dominance in critical minerals processing, seen as a challenge for the energy transition, the technology sector, defense, and artificial intelligence.

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